The shape of the business:
- 18,000 seats a season: 150 sailable days × 8 sessions × 15 karts on track
- Operating costs: roughly $280k a year
- Break-even: about 27 guests a day
- Base case (48 guests/day): ~7,200 guests, ~$504k revenue, ~$224k operating profit at US$70 net
- Build: ~$350k, paid back in about a season and a half
- The number that matters most: the net rate agreed with Carnival. The tables below run US$70 vs US$55 net; the difference is roughly half the profit. Settle the rate first.
Headline numbers · base case = 48 guests/day, US$70 net, 150-day wind season
Break-even
≈ 4,000 guests/season (22% of seats) at US$70 net; ~34/day at US$55
Base-case revenue
7,200 guests · ceiling $1.26M at full capacity
Base-case operating profit
at US$70 net · $116k at US$55 net
Payback on ~$350k build
seasons at base case, US$70 net; ~3.0 at US$55
Demand sanity, per Carnival day: assume every guest at the track comes off a ship. A typical Carnival ship carries 3,500 to 5,000 guests, and Celebration Key often hosts two at once. The base case of 48 guests a day is about 1% of a single ship; a completely full day (120 guests, all 8 sessions at 15 karts) is about 3% of one ship, or half that with two in port. The demand ask is modest; the execution ask is the Carnival listing and the port-to-track shuttle.
The wind case, in brief
Blokarts sail in 6 to 30 knots depending on the track surface. We analysed ten years of hourly wind records (2016 to 2025) for the Celebration Key end of Grand Bahama and ran the identical analysis on our Bonaire track, where more than 40,000 guests have sailed since 2018. Scored strictly, counting only days with 8 knots or more, October to April gives 71% of days sailable, about 150 operating days a season, with no weak month (see the chart). On chip seal, which sails from 6 knots, the same decade gives about 86%, roughly 180 days. The plan is built on the stricter 150. Bonaire scores 92% on the same strict test. The wind builds through the morning and holds all afternoon, so every session of a cruise day is equally workable, and on-site spot checks confirm the chosen site before any build commits. The full study is available on request.
Try the assumptions
Drag any assumption; everything recalculates. Wind days run 127 (decade-worst) to 165; the ten-year expected value is 150. The price slider is the net rate to the operation per guest; try US$55 to see a lower negotiated rate.
Revenue scenarios: US$70 vs US$55 net
| Scenario | Guests/day | Guests/season | Profit at $70 net | Profit at $55 net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow start | 36 | 5,400 | $98k | $17k, near break-even |
| Base case | 48 | 7,200 | $224k | $116k |
| Strong | 60 | 9,000 | $350k | $215k |
| Excellent | 72 | 10,800 | $476k | $314k |
Contribution per guest is roughly the net rate itself (wind is free), so every guest above break-even is nearly pure margin, and every US$1 of net rate is worth ~$7,200 a season at base volume. Wind stress (127-day season, decade-worst) takes ~15% off revenue; at US$70 net the base case still clears ~$147k.
Operating costs: ~$280k a year
| Line | $/yr | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Operations manager, year-round | 42,000 | looks after the fleet off-season |
| Track team, 4 seasonal × 7 months | 73,000 | ~$2,600/mo each |
| Payroll on-costs (~12%) | 14,000 | NIB etc. |
| Land lease | 48,000 | $4k/mo, held year-round |
| Insurance ($2M public liability) | 20,000 | cruise-line requirement |
| Maintenance: karts and facilities | 17,000 | spares, sails, track and facilities upkeep |
| Guest shuttle, port to track | 20,000 | van + driver on cruise days |
| Utilities, comms, booking and waiver software | 8,000 | |
| Marketing, photography, giveaways | 12,000 | |
| Contingency ~10% | 26,000 | |
| Total | ~280,000 |
Every cost line is an estimate; local quotes will firm them up.
Build cost: ~$350k indication
| Item | $ | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Fleet: 16 singles + 3 doubles, full sail quivers, spares | 120-155k | final pricing to be confirmed by LAI |
| Track: chip seal, drainage, storm engineering | 100-150k | site dependent |
| LAI consulting & commissioning fee | 35k | certification, training, systems, cruise-line support |
| Container, fit-out, briefing area, signage | 25k | |
| Contingency | 30k | |
| Total | ~350k | payback ~1.6 seasons at base case, US$70 net |
The two sensitivities that matter
1 · The net rate (the big one)
Nearly all guests at this port come through Carnival, so the net rate we sell to Carnival at sets the whole revenue line. At US$55 net the base-case profit roughly halves to ~$116k and a slow start earns very little. Every US$1 of net rate is worth ~$7,200 a season at base volume; nothing else in the plan comes close.
2 · Utilisation
Every extra guest per day, held across the season, adds about $10.5k of revenue at US$70 net ($8.3k at US$55) at almost no extra cost. The wind is a known, bounded discount (22-29% of season days lost). Filling seats on the days that sail (the excursion listing, the shuttle, the warm Carnival market) is where the plan wins or loses after the rate is set.
Limitations
- Lease, insurance, wages, track construction and shuttle are estimates, not quotes, pending local pricing.
- Bahamas VAT (10%) and business licence fee are not modelled; treatment depends on structure. Any ongoing LAI support fee is not yet modelled.
- Utilisation is judgement, not bookings; the Carnival warm-market claim is unproven at this port.
- Before the build commits, the site is verified with on-site wind spot checks through the season (regional data plus spot checks suffice; no full-season logging campaign).
At US$70 net the operation covers its costs with just 27 guests a day; at US$55 net it needs about 34, and a slow first season would earn very little. Negotiating the net rate with Carnival matters more than any other number in this plan.
From here to the full model
- Carnival conversation first: the net rate and child rate for Celebration Key, expected calls per week, and how ground transport works for excursions from the port. Worth more than every cost quote combined.
- Site shortlist and local quotes: lease, chip-seal contractor, insurance, wages.
- Final fleet pricing confirmed by LAI.
- On-site wind spot checks at the shortlisted site through the season.
- Then the three-year model: a utilisation ramp across the first three seasons, VAT and licence treatment, and the LAI fee structure.